Fed watching is looking very different now. Two charts can help you in the Warsh era.

The article argues that under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, the central bank will provide less forward guidance and place more emphasis on inflation control, making markets more dependent on incoming macro data. Warsh’s first meeting was described as hawkish: the Fed trimmed its statement, removed the easing bias, and the dot plot showed higher inflation, lower unemployment, and even a possible 2026 rate hike for many participants. The market implication is greater volatility around economic releases, especially inflation and jobs reports, as investors can no longer rely on detailed Fed signaling. The piece highlights two key benchmarks for investors: the gap between inflation/unemployment and the Fed’s dual mandate targets, and the spread between the 2-year Treasury yield and the fed funds rate, which historically signals policy turning points.