Fed Rate Hold in June Seen as Near Certainty, CME FedWatch Shows

CME FedWatch data shows markets pricing a 97.3% probability the Fed will hold interest rates at the June meeting, with only a 2.7% chance of a 25 bp hike. For July, the odds of no change are 84.8%, while a cumulative 25 bp increase by then is seen at 14.8% (and a 50 bp move at 0.3%). The readings signal market expectations for a steady Fed through the summer, which should reduce uncertainty for rate-sensitive assets. The article notes that a steady Fed stance could support short-term risk-on sentiment in crypto markets (including BTCUSD), although investors remain attentive to incoming inflation data and Fed communications that could alter probabilities ahead of July.