Fed injects $172B post-QT, Bitcoin $200K odds unchanged

Since ending Quantitative Tightening the Fed has injected $172 billion into markets (with another $7.6 billion scheduled), a shift that could lower rates and push capital into risk assets like Bitcoin. Despite that, the Polymarket contract betting on Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by Dec. 31, 2026, remains flat at 4.9%, signaling market skepticism that new liquidity will trigger a rapid rally. The prediction market is thin—$10,272/day face value traded but only $505 in USDC volume—so large orders could move prices, though none have. The upcoming FOMC meeting (Apr 28–29) is highlighted as the next potential catalyst that could change odds if it signals further easing or unexpected rate cuts.