Experts Warn That Recession Risks Are Increasing. Here's What That Means for Investors

The S&P 500 recently hit a fresh all-time high even as economists warn rising oil prices tied to the Iran war have increased recession risk. IMF and Vanguard analysts say persistent oil price strength could lift inflation markedly (IMF flagged a potential 6% inflation), while Goldman Sachs pegs the odds of a U.S. recession at about 30% over the next 12 months. The Fed’s decision to hold rates steady has helped markets for now, but prolonged oil disruption could slow GDP and push inflation higher. The piece frames this as a period of heightened uncertainty where long-term, stay-invested strategies remain prudent despite elevated near-term risks.