Evening digest: Trump eyes Iran deal, Warsh pledges Fed independence

Markets turned cautious as geopolitical developments and central bank politics reshaped risk pricing. Trump’s optimism on an Iran deal, coupled with continued enforcement in the Strait of Hormuz, kept a risk premium in oil (Brent ~$100.8, WTI ~$92.05, both up ~5%), prompting a trade bias toward energy (XLE/USO). Kevin Warsh’s Senate testimony on Fed independence and firmer oil lifted yields as markets scaled back rate-cut expectations, pressuring duration (sell TLT suggested). Bitcoin slipped from near $77,000 to about $75,000 amid macro and geopolitical uncertainty, dragging crypto-related equities (Coinbase, Robinhood) lower and keeping crypto sentiment in “fear.” Overall market impact: energy and cyclical equities may outperform while long-duration assets and risk assets face downside pressure until clarity on Iran and Fed policy emerges.