European insurance stocks historically show lower Q1 volatility, says UBS

UBS Global Research finds European insurance stocks have shown lower price dispersion on Q1 results days over the past four years, suggesting a calmer reporting season for the sector ahead of 1Q26 results. The report cites an average standard deviation of 2.6% on Q1 results days versus a 3.9% average across all reporting periods, while Q2 typically shows the largest dispersion. Multi-line insurers historically display the least share-price volatility, Nordic insurers the most. At the stock level, SCOR, Gjensidige and Prudential have recorded the biggest Q1 swings (Prudential’s data is affected by a small sample). UBS says combining these historical patterns with current crowding data can help investors identify where volatility is likeliest, implying fewer broad sector shocks but targeted opportunities/risk around specific insurers and regions.