EUR/USD Climbs Past 1.12 as Fed Pause Expectations Rise to 85%

The EUR/USD traded above 1.12, reaching near 1.1230, as the US Dollar weakened following neutral remarks from Fed official Kevin Warsh. Warsh declined to provide explicit forward guidance, reinforcing expectations that policy decisions remain data-dependent. Consequently, money markets raised the probability of a Federal Reserve rate pause to 85%, up from 72%, while US Treasury yields dropped 6 to 13 basis points. The dollar softened despite September US PPI rising 6.3% year-over-year, which surpassed the 5.3% forecast. Euro gains were tempered by persistent political concerns in France.