EUR/USD forecast: Rising energy prices strengthen US dollar as downside risks for euro grows

The article argues EUR/USD is biased lower as rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East push crude oil higher and bolster the US dollar. Higher energy prices are seen as a stronger driver of FX than rate differentials, especially if Brent oil moves toward $100, which would hurt the eurozone more than the US through higher import and natural gas costs. The dollar is also supported by expectations of further Fed tightening after June’s hawkish shift, while upcoming US CPI may reinforce that view even if headline inflation eases modestly. Technically, EUR/USD is described as trapped in a bearish flag, with a break below support around 1.1324 opening the path toward 1.1300. Resistance is highlighted near 1.1450 and 1.1480–1.1500. Overall, the outlook is bearish for EUR/USD, with rallies expected to attract sellers.