ETHFI token unlock threatens 95.7% dilution, Ethereum market watches April 30

A planned ETHFI token unlock threatens up to 95.7% dilution and has put Ethereum price markets on alert ahead of an April 30 on-chain transfer. Prediction-market odds for ETH to reach $10,000 by Dec. 31, 2026 sit at 4.2% (4¢), unchanged over the past week, suggesting traders are undecided. Liquidity is thin — just $14 traded in 24 hours — making markets vulnerable: a $1,050 trade would shift odds by five percentage points and the largest expected swing tied to the dilution is about 7%. If the 10,000 ETH moves, analysts expect heavy selling pressure; if it remains unmoved, the narrative could temporarily rally prices. Market reaction is muted pending clearer signals, and statements from Vitalik Buterin or the Ethereum Foundation could shift sentiment.