Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH Risks 20% Drop in May Due to These 5 Factors

Ether (ETH) faces mounting downside risk into May as a dense technical resistance cluster near $2,340 (20-week EMA, 200-week EMA, 0.618 Fib) appears to be capping upside. A rejection there could trigger roughly a 20% pullback toward the $1,730–$1,850 multi-year trendline/0.786 Fib support; a deeper break risks a move toward ~$2,000. Macro pressure from rising oil driven by US–Iran tensions lifts inflation and the US dollar, tightening liquidity and reducing appetite for risk assets including crypto. On-chain signals (realized-price cost-basis for large wallets) and a low Binance supply ratio (0.029) combined with fading derivatives demand (OI ~ $4.99B, 30-day OI Z-score ~ -0.91, negative funding) further raise the probability of a delayed downside in ETH.