ETFs, treasuries hold 12% of Bitcoin, shifting ownership from retail

Institutional accumulation is materially reshaping Bitcoin’s supply dynamics and market structure. ETFs and corporate treasuries now hold about 12% of total BTC, concentrating ownership away from retail and miners and shrinking available float — a factor that can support prices and narrow downside risk. Polymarket prediction markets price a near-certain probability (100% YES) of Bitcoin trading $78,000–$80,000 on April 15, driven by renewed ETF inflows and institutional buying. All-time-high bets remain low (single-digit odds for mid‑year), underscoring cautious longer-term expectations. Market participants should monitor ETF inflow reports (BlackRock/Fidelity daily flows > $500M flagged as a clear bullish signal) and corporate treasury purchases as primary drivers of near-term BTC price support.