Economists overwhelmingly predict BOJ rate hike in December after expected October pause

Expectations have consolidated around a December Bank of Japan interest rate increase, with a Bloomberg survey showing 83% of economists anticipating a move then, up from 35% last month. None of the surveyed economists expect a policy rate adjustment at the October 30 meeting, keeping the benchmark steady at 1.25%. Swap markets had earlier priced in approximately 73% odds of a December hike following the BOJ's September tightening. Additionally, 67% of surveyed economists now project quarterly hikes, with the median terminal rate expectation remaining at 1.75%, while policymakers consider slightly upgrading their fiscal year 2027 inflation forecast.