EchoStar: A SpaceX Proxy, Despite Ergen's Efforts To Forge His Own Path

The article argues that EchoStar has evolved into a largely indirect proxy for SpaceX, while its legacy businesses are deteriorating or heading toward bankruptcy. It highlights that EchoStar’s satellite broadband, pay-TV, and mobile operations are either already in Chapter 11 or facing it, and that unresolved tower-related lawsuits could create multibillion-dollar liabilities. A key positive is that a long-standing FCC spectrum backstop liability was eliminated after re-auction bids totaled $3.5 billion, above EchoStar’s original bid. The piece estimates EchoStar’s SpaceX stake at about 262.2 million shares, worth roughly $29 billion, and suggests EchoStar’s combined cash from the AT&T and SpaceX spectrum deals could leave it with net cash after debt, though legal claims may offset that. Despite the apparent discount to implied SpaceX value, the author remains cautious due to operational decay, bankruptcy uncertainty, and management risk, and rates the stock Hold.