ECB's Lane Bolsters June Hike Case Amid Energy Shock, Markets Hold 92% Odds

ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane outlined a strong case for a June rate hike to counter global energy shocks feeding into wages and inflation, tempering mixed signals from Villeroy (insufficient core data) and Kocher (no baseline hike). This follows surging March CPI at 2.6% (vs 2.5% exp), core 3.1%, and PPI +3.4% MoM (energy +11.1%), with prior hawkishness from Nagel (two-hike baseline) and Kažimír (inevitable). Markets price three 2026 hikes, EURUSD at 1.0950-1.1710, Bund yields 2.65% amid persistent pressures.