DWF Labs Report Identifies Spot Bitcoin ETF Investors as Trend Followers Lacking Predictive Power

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF flows act as lagging indicators rather than predictive market drivers, according to research from DWF Labs. Across 694 trading days since January 2024, daily ETF flows showed a 0.54 correlation with the previous five days of Bitcoin returns, but dropped to 0.03 for the subsequent five days. Investors added capital during all nine rallies of 15% or more and withdrew funds in seven of eight equivalent downturns. The trend-following activity contributed to spot Bitcoin ETFs recording their first negative half-year in early 2026, posting $5.4 billion in net outflows.