Don’t Sleep on Powell’s Press Conference. Wall Street Won’t.

The piece warns markets to watch Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference (2:30 p.m. ET) even though the Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold interest rates steady. Historical intraday patterns since 2024 show the S&P 500 averages a 0.2% gain through 2 p.m. on Fed decision days, but that gain typically narrows to 0.14% by the start of Powell’s presser and the index has ended Fed decision days down about 0.1% on average after intraday volatility. Powell’s remarks—potentially his final presser as chair—could be market-moving, especially comments on fellow policymakers’ views or energy-price inflation. Big Tech earnings due after the close are likely to dominate headlines, but the presser still poses short-term volatility risk for stocks.