Dollar Gains Edge as US Net Oil Exporter Status Shields from Energy Shock

As of May 17, the US dollar is positioned to grind higher within its 2026 range, insulated by America's status as a net oil exporter while peers suffer terms-of-trade damage from Strait of Hormuz disruptions. The story began May 7 with crude oil dropping for a third day on reports Iran may accept a US deal to reopen the strait, lifting EUR/USD above 1.1750. Hotter-than-expected April CPI on May 12 then drove a +3% oil surge and +0.45% dollar-index gain, cutting June Fed-cut odds to 5%. By May 13, WTI held above $100 amid muted FX options and persistent geopolitics, setting the stage for the structural dollar support highlighted by RBC.