Did the Iran War Kill Any Chance of a Fed Rate Cut This Year?

The S&P 500 is trading at all-time highs, supported by a surge in AI stocks, but attention is on the Fed meeting where policymakers are expected to hold the funds rate. The Iran war has driven up energy (and potentially food) prices and increased uncertainty, reducing the likelihood of near-term Fed rate cuts. CME FedWatch pricing shows a 100% probability rates will be held at the upcoming decision and a 30% chance of at least one cut by year-end. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's term ends in May and nominee Kevin Warsh could shift the stance over time, but any change depends on the broader FOMC and resolution of war-driven supply risks. Investors should expect continued uncertainty around the timing of cuts while geopolitics keep upside pressure on prices.