Did the economy actually get stronger during the Iran war? Here’s what the numbers tell us.

Strong March economic data — a 3.3% jump in business investment, a 9.5% year-over-year rise in core durable-goods orders, inventory buildups (wholesale +1.4%, retail +0.7%) and housing starts at a 15-month high — suggest the U.S. economy finished Q1 on firmer footing. Economists revised Q1 GDP expectations higher (Jefferies to 3.0% from 2.6%; WSJ survey 2.3% consensus), which could support equity benchmarks such as the US SP 500. The article notes the gains are partly driven by AI-related investment and potential front-loading amid Iran-related supply concerns. However, higher oil and natural-gas prices from the Iran conflict present a downside risk that could slow growth later. Overall, the mix of stronger domestic demand and potential energy-driven headwinds implies a cautiously bullish outlook for markets in the near term.