Deutsche Bank Projects S&P 500 to Beat High Q2 Earnings Bar

Deutsche Bank now forecasts S&P 500 Q2 earnings growth of 29.3% year-over-year, exceeding the 26.2% consensus and implying a 3% beat. This upbeat view follows Goldman Sachs' earlier 22% estimate and reflects stronger-than-average positive guidance, especially from semiconductor and AI firms. Semiconductors alone are expected to contribute 11 percentage points to index growth amid supportive macro factors like higher oil prices and a weaker dollar. With 37% of companies guiding above estimates versus a 17% historical average, earnings strength could extend the 2026 rally, though risks remain around margins and consumer spending.