De Guindos Urges ECB Prudence on Hikes as Shock Differs from 2021; EURUSD Holds Above 1.17

EURUSD remains resilient above 1.1700 despite stagflation risks from weak May 6 PMIs and Middle East-driven energy shocks. ECB held deposit rate at 2.00% on April 30 in hawkish pause, with Nagel (May 1) signaling June hike likelihood and Muller (May 4) warning of accelerating inflation (~77% June odds, ~70bps year-end tightening). Q2 SPF raised 2026 HICP to 2.7% while cutting GDP to 1.0%; Societe Generale (May 7), Nordea/Nomura (May 8) flagged persistent inflation and data-dependent hikes. De Guindos (May 11) cautioned against 2021-22 comparisons, urging data wait amid growth risks, as Deutsche Bank sees euro vulnerable pre-US CPI.