Danske Bank Views Canada CPI Neutral, Stabilizing BoC Pause on US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar

Danske Bank deems Statistics Canada's latest CPI neutral at 2.8% headline and 2.9% core YoY, implying no policy shift from the Bank of Canada amid steady markets and stable Canadian dollar. This follows March CPI accelerating to 2.4% YoY from 1.8%, fueled by a record 21.2% MoM gasoline surge (+13.1% energy) and +5.9% YoY gasoline, though core CPI-common eased to 2.6% per RBC. TD Securities highlights persistent energy volatility through 2025, likely extending BoC holds at 4.75-5.0% and posing CAD upside risks versus USD.