Danske Bank Delays BoJ Rate Hike Forecast to June 2025 on Weak Data

Danske Bank has delayed its forecast for the Bank of Japan's first rate hike since 2007 to June 2025, citing incomplete wage pass-through, plateauing core-core inflation at 2%, and weak private consumption exceeding 50% of GDP. This revises earlier April expectations and follows Rabobank's April 20 analysis of a policy crossroads with core CPI above 2%, 2.4% unemployment, -0.1% policy rate, and YCC capping 10-year JGB yields near 0%. The outlook sustains yen weakness, elevated USD/JPY, tight JGB yield ranges, and carry-trade favorability amid BoJ's balance sheet over 130% of GDP.