Commerzbank Warns Persistent Oil Prices Fuel Inflation Spillovers at $97 Brent

Brent crude holds above $97 per barrel on June 5 as the Strait of Hormuz disruption drains inventories at 8.7 million barrels per day. After weeks of hawkish Fed commentary labeling the shock non-transitory, a Boston Fed study released June 4 found that a 33% price shock now adds only 1.5 percentage points to inflation versus 2.2 points in the 1970s, with regional employment offsets largely eliminating past recessionary effects. The alert follows ExxonMobil and Chevron forecasts of a potential $150–160 spike and Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon’s June 3 warning that sustained high prices could reshape consumer spending in the second half of 2026, with the Bank of England now citing clouded rate-outlook risks.