Commerzbank: Geopolitics Support Gold Demand but Cap Prices Below $4,500

Commerzbank warns gold faces near-term caps from rising oil prices and US rate hike expectations, dipping below $4,500 per ounce in March despite robust World Gold Council-reported investment and central bank demand for ETFs, bars, and coins. This tempers Deutsche Bank's prior bullish outlook, where emerging market central banks tripled gold's reserve share to ~30%—versus the dollar's drop to 40%—driving structural support via active buying and potential FX reserve declines. Geopolitical risks like a prolonged Strait of Hormuz blockade heighten downside, while détente offers only cautious upside, blending long-term tailwinds with short-term volatility.