Cleveland Fed Nowcast Lifts April Inflation to 3.58%, Jeopardizing S&P 500 Rally at 7,126

The Cleveland Fed’s Inflation Nowcasting model has raised its April trailing-12-month inflation forecast to 3.58% (as of April 15), up sharply from 3.28% at the month's start amid energy shocks from the Iran conflict. National average gas prices climbed to $4.11/gallon, hiking business costs and raising odds the Fed holds or hikes rates, which threatens the S&P 500's fresh record high at 7,126.06 despite a +1.20% gain shown. Elevated valuations amplify downside risks, suggesting the bull run may stall soon.