Citi sees "the most bullish set-up in over 50 years" for this metal

Citi says aluminium faces one of the largest modern supply shocks, driven by Middle East disruption, near-zero spare capacity and inventories at 55-year lows. The bank forecasts aluminium averaging $4,000/tonne in 2H‑2026 and a bull-case average of $5,350/tonne in 2027, and projects a roughly 2.7m‑tonne deficit this year. Citi warns that shrinking hidden and financing stocks will force inventory drawdowns, creating upside convexity where relatively small physical shortages could trigger large, nonlinear price spikes. Its current trades include a long Dec‑2026 futures position and a 3,300/3,600 call spread. Main downside risks are a major risk‑off event or a deep global recession.