Citi cuts Strategy target as Bitcoin forecast revised lower

Citi cut Strategy Inc.’s price target sharply to $136 from $260 while keeping a Buy rating, after lowering its 12-month Bitcoin forecast by 27% to about $81,800. The revision reflects weaker expected Bitcoin upside, reduced Bitcoin yield assumptions, and a more cautious view on Strategy’s valuation tied to mNAV expansion. Citi said the company’s updated capital plan, including a $1.15 billion equity issuance, a larger USD reserve, and potential share repurchases, buys time for stabilization. The note also highlighted that Strategy’s Bitcoin trading activity is small relative to spot volume and that its share of total Bitcoin supply should only decline modestly. The news is negative for MSTR sentiment in the near term, as it implies lower upside from Bitcoin-linked exposure, though Citi still sees support from a higher BTC price and capital structure flexibility.