Chart Alert: S&P 500 Risks Bull Trap as Stronger US Dollar Threatens Q2 Rally

The article says the S&P 500 closed Q2 2026 strongly, rising 1.98% over June 29-30 to 7,499 and posting a 14.9% quarterly gain, its best since Q2 2020. However, the rally now looks stretched as price approaches key resistance near 7,545, with short-term momentum weakening and RSI showing a bearish breakdown. The piece argues the rebound was driven by quarter-end window dressing, institutional buying into AI/semiconductor/mega-cap tech, and reduced US-Iran geopolitical risk. The main macro risk is a stronger US dollar, which has broken to a 13-month high after the June FOMC meeting. The author warns that if Fed Chair Kevin Warsh sounds hawkish or if upcoming US payrolls are resilient, further dollar strength could trigger a near-term pullback or ‘bull trap’ in the S&P 500.