Canada’s Oil Export Boom Fuels Surplus Amid War and Tariff Risks: BoC Survey

Bank of Canada’s Market Participants Survey flags Middle East war (82%) and U.S. trade tensions (79%) as top downside risks, despite oil windfalls boosting the economy. Elevated crude prices, up 33.1%, drove energy exports up 15.6% to $17.1 billion and total exports 8.5% to $72.8 billion, yielding a $1.78 billion March merchandise trade surplus. Higher fuel costs stoke inflation and BoC rate hike fears, while U.S. tariff threats loom. Policymakers are launching a $25 billion Canada Strong Fund to invest oil revenues in energy and infrastructure.