Can Iraq Really Replace Saudi Arabia As The Middle East’s Top Oil Producer?

Iraq is aiming to increase crude oil production to between 8 million and 10 million barrels per day (bpd) within the next six years, presenting a potential challenge to Saudi Arabia's longstanding position as the Middle East's leading producer. Historically, Iraq's output averaged 2.38 million bpd between 1973 and 2026, though it reached 4.14 million bpd before recent regional shipping disruptions. The country's ambitious expansion targets are backed by massive proven crude reserves officially estimated at 145 billion barrels, with total ultimately recoverable resources estimated at around 246 billion barrels according to the International Energy Agency. A key catalyst for this growth is the return of Western energy supermajors following improvements in governance and anti-corruption efforts. A central driver of this capacity ramp-up is TotalEnergies' $27-billion four-part mega-project ratified in 2023. The venture focuses on capturing associated gas for domestic power generation, boosting output at the Ratawi field to 210,000 bpd, and advancing the Common Seawater Supply Project (CSSP) to sustain reservoir pressure across Iraq's largest southern fields, potentially reshaping regional market share.