Businesses Hire At Pandemic-Era Levels As Iran War Hurts Outlook

A National Association of Business Economists survey shows business leaders increasingly pessimistic about the economic outlook amid the Iran war. Only 6% of firms increased headcount in the last quarter — the lowest since Q3 2020 — while rising fuel and materials costs are squeezing profits and curbing investment and hiring. Half of respondents now assign better-than-25% odds of a recession in the next year (up from 44% in January), and consumer sentiment has plunged. These developments heighten downside risks for the US SP 500 as corporate margins and capital spending come under pressure from energy-driven cost shocks and greater macro uncertainty.