Buffett Indicator Hits Record 231% as S&P 500 Reaches $7,520 Peak

By May 30 the Buffett indicator surged to a fresh all-time high of 231% of GDP, confirming extreme S&P 500 overvaluation. The milestone follows a rapid sequence of warnings that began May 24 when margin debt jumped 53% to $1.304 trillion. On May 27 the Shiller CAPE ratio reached 39.6 and consumer sentiment fell to 44.8; one day later CAPE crossed 40 for only the second time in a century at the $7,520 level. Year-over-year index gains near 30% have persisted despite the mounting signals that historically preceded major drawdowns.