BTC Cycle Underperforms Halvings with Muted Volatility, Trades ~$75K: Analyst

Galaxy Research's Alex Thorn states the 2024-2026 Bitcoin cycle is dramatically underperforming prior halvings, with the Oct. 5, 2025 ATH of ~$125,000 only 97% above the April 2024 halving price of ~$63,000—far below historical gains of 761% to 9,294%. Volatility remains low at ~1.75% (30-day gauge), never exceeding 3.11% this cycle versus 9.64% in 2020, while drawdowns hit just ~50% to $60,000 before rebounding to ~$74,700-$75,000. This shift, partly due to pre-halving ETF rallies, prompts mixed views: some like VanEck see bottoming and gradual 2026 upside, altering traditional halving-driven risk/reward.