Brent Nears $120 as Oil Surge Cements Fed Hold, Erases 2026 Cuts

Brent crude trades around $111 per barrel after briefly nearing $120, locking in 100% odds of the Fed holding rates at 3.50%–3.75% with no cuts priced for the rest of 2026. The rally built from WTI at $100, slashing easing expectations from 60bp to 4bp and near-100% no-move probability. Powell's tone will be key amid inflation risks, elevated energy costs, and 6.5% mortgage rates, with consumer surveys showing 62.8% expecting hikes—keeping policy cautious and borrowing costs high.