BoE preview: will the central bank make another step towards a rate hike?

The Bank of England is expected to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% but maintain a hawkish bias, with one or two dissenters possible. Recent UK data are mixed: headline CPI rose to 3.3% while core CPI eased to 3.1%, services inflation remains elevated at 4.5%, and unemployment fell to 4.9%. S&P Global PMIs point to stronger activity and an unprecedented surge in business costs, heightening the risk that inflation becomes more entrenched. Markets price roughly a 63% chance of a June rate hike. A hawkish signal or surprise hike would likely push GBPUSD higher and pressure the FTSE (UK 100), while a dovish turn is considered unlikely. Overall risk is skewed toward GBP appreciation and UK equities downside.