BNY Warns Tight Gas, Conflicts Drive Oil Surge Amid Blockade Volatility

Oil prices are surging amid BNY's alert on structurally tight natural gas inventories and escalating geopolitical risks boosting crude demand and volatility. This builds on MUFG's warning of a 2 million bpd supply blockade shortfall—now three weeks old—driving futures 15% higher since inception while tripling shipping insurance premiums. Rabobank kicked off concerns on April 23, citing 35% supply disruption odds versus futures-implied 10%, narrowed spreads, limited OPEC spare capacity, and stagflation risks if prices hit $100/barrel, with IEA/EIA slashing 2025 forecasts.