BNP Paribas Warns $200 Oil Shock Could Spark Recession as Brent Tops $114

BNP Paribas cautions that oil surging to $200/barrel amid supply bottlenecks could drive the world into recession, with Brent crude now above $114/bbl (up 88% YTD). The bank's base case sees a first-half average around $100/bbl, projecting 3% global GDP growth above its 2.5% recession threshold. Despite inflation risks from commodities like helium impacting chips, BNP stays overweight equities targeting S&P 500 at 7,500 and 10-year Treasury yields at 4.5% by Q3 end.