Bitwise Says Global Conflict Could Expand Bitcoin Market Beyond Gold: Is That Plausible?

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan argues in an April 2026 memo that continued geopolitical fragmentation could expand Bitcoin’s addressable market beyond gold’s ~$20 trillion, not only as “digital gold” but as a politically neutral settlement layer for countries cut off from the dollar system. The article cites market evidence from elevated Iran–U.S. tensions: Bitcoin rose 12% between Feb. 27 and Apr. 10, briefly topped $75,000, while the S&P 500 fell ~1% and gold dropped ~10%. Continued spot-Bitcoin ETF inflows during stress periods reinforce institutional interest. If Bitcoin captures a meaningful share of gold’s market plus settlement demand, Bitwise treats $1 million as a plausible long-term baseline, implying major reallocation and upside for BTC if the thesis plays out.