Bitcoin's August Hard Fork May Dwarf Every Previous Split Combined

Bitcoin is facing a potentially historic hard fork in August 2026 (targeting block ~964,000) that will airdrop a 1:1 eCash token to BTC holders. Institutional concentration — spot ETFs holding over 1 million BTC and corporate treasuries like Strategy (MSTR) with 818,334 BTC — raises unprecedented legal, tax and market risks. Custodial concentration (Coinbase holding ~80–84% of U.S. ETF BTC) makes sponsor and custodian decisions a choke point: claiming eCash could trigger large taxable events and disclosures for corporate holders, while selling claimed allocations could create significant sell pressure. Exchanges, ETF sponsors and auditors must set listing and accounting policies before the split. Although most prior Bitcoin forks faded, the dollar scale of institutional exposure means any meaningful eCash price discovery would have real market impact. Overall, the event forces near-term decisions across ETFs, custodians and corporate balance sheets and presents both upside (if Drivechains deliver utility) and downside (liquidation/tax and compliance risks) for BTC markets.