Bitcoin's $80k test should be decided by the bond market this week

Bitcoin’s push to clear ~$80,000 now hinges on the U.S. Treasury market: a breakout in 10-year yields could either validate the recent institutional inflow streak or turn it into another failed rally. The 10-year has traded in a tight April band (4.26%–4.35%); a drop below ~4.26% (and Reuters’ 4.23% pivot) would ease discount-rate pressure, supporting ETF/spot inflows and improving BTC’s chance to clear and hold above $80,100. Conversely, a move above 4.35% toward ~4.6% would tighten financial conditions, likely stopping BTC at $80,100 and testing supports at $78,100 and then $75,000. Recent flow data show renewed demand — CoinShares reported $1.2 billion in weekly crypto product inflows (about $933 million to Bitcoin), and U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs logged nine straight positive sessions totaling over $2 billion — but Glassnode flags concentrated profit-taking (short-term holder basis $80,100; realized profit spiking ~$4.4m/hour). The article is an analytic view that Treasuries, driven by the Fed, GDP and PCE data cluster, are the proximate market that could decide Bitcoin’s next directional move.