Bitcoin's $300K gold pattern now depends on whether Iran's oil shock rewrites the Fed path

The article compares gold’s multi-year cup-and-handle breakout (peaking above $5,400 in Jan 2026) to an analogous formation developing in Bitcoin, arguing BTC could reach $300,000 by end-2026 if the pattern and macro drivers align. That alignment depends on oil: a June 1 spike in Brent to $97.14 amid Iran/Hormuz tensions lifted Fed-hike odds (CME FedWatch ~56% for ≥1 hike by year-end), strengthening the dollar and real yields and prompting nearly $3bn of net outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs through May 29. Gold benefited from central-bank buying (244 tonnes net in Q1) and is less rate-sensitive; BTC’s breakout is conditional on oil peaking and rate-hike odds fading. Scenarios range from reclaiming $80–85k and moving toward Citi/VanEck bull targets to a failed breakout toward $58k if disruption persists.