Bitcoin transaction volume surpasses Visa, Mastercard in 2025

Bitcoin’s transaction volume surpassed Visa and Mastercard in 2025, driven largely by institutional and wholesale activity rather than retail use. Prediction markets show modest odds for big near-term price moves — 14.5% for $80,000 in April (down sharply from 26% the prior day) and 4.8% for $200,000 by Dec. 31, 2026 — indicating traders are optimistic about long-term institutional adoption but skeptical of short-term retail-driven rallies. The $80,000 contract shows meaningful liquidity ($125,323 in USDC traded daily) but notable volatility (a 37-point drop and an $8,440 cost to move the market by 5 points). The story signals structural institutional adoption as a bullish long-term catalyst, while short-term price action remains uncertain; ETF inflows from firms like BlackRock and Fidelity are highlighted as potential catalysts to watch.