Bitcoin Traders Watch Fed Chair Warsh for Clues—And Get Nothing

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh marked his 100th day in office with a keynote address at the Jackson Hole symposium, explicitly rejecting the practice of forward guidance. Declaring that interest-rate hints have 'overstayed their welcome,' Warsh argued that relying on central bank guidance creates a 'hall-of-mirrors problem' where traders trade expectations rather than raw economic data. He reiterated the Fed's primary focus on fighting inflation, pointing out that the PCE price index stands at 3.7%—well above the 2.0% target—with 54% of tracked categories posting yearly price increases over 3%. Bitcoin traded relatively flat around the $80,000 level following a 20% weekly surge fueled by Treasury debt buybacks rather than central bank commentary. Warsh's hawkish reminder that the Fed still has 'work to do' caused a brief $1,000 flash drop in Bitcoin before prices immediately stabilized. Overall cryptocurrency market capitalization held steady at approximately $2.7 trillion. Market expectations for monetary policy remain divided ahead of the September FOMC meeting. CME FedWatch data showed traders lowering the probability of a September rate hike to 38.4%, down from 82% a month earlier, with the remaining participants expecting unchanged rates.