Bitcoin traders brace for Federal Reserve decision as hold odds hit 98%

Bitcoin traders are bracing for the Federal Reserve’s June 16-17 meeting, with CME FedWatch pricing a 98.2% probability that rates will remain unchanged. The market is less focused on the rate decision itself and more on Chair Kevin Warsh’s first meeting, the updated Summary of Economic Projections, and the dot plot for clues on the policy path through 2026 and beyond. Crypto markets have weakened ahead of the event, with total market capitalization down 2.47% in 24 hours to about $2.13 trillion and Bitcoin under pressure as traders cut risk. Reuters data and Wall Street forecasts suggest the Fed may stay on hold for much longer than previously expected, and some institutions now even see future hikes in late 2026. The article suggests any hawkish shift in tone or projections could weigh on Bitcoin and broader risk assets, while a softer stance could support them.