Bitcoin price to get a macro boost as BofA says tariff refunds could cool inflation

Bank of America says U.S. tariff refunds could provide a macro tailwind for Bitcoin by reducing Treasury General Account (TGA) balances and easing inflation pressures. Approximately $35.46bn of refunds (21% of a potential $166bn pool) have been processed to May 11; a full $166bn payout would equal ~5.3% of current reserve balances. If refunds are disbursed from existing TGA cash and importers use proceeds to avoid future price hikes, reserves would rise and core inflation could ease (Dallas Fed estimates tariffs added ~0.8pp to core PCE), loosening the yield constraint that has capped BTC. CryptoSlate notes BTC was trading near $77,507 vs a 200-day moving average around $82,000, with $982m of Bitcoin product outflows reported. Risks include slow or contested refunds, Treasury rebuilding the TGA via bill issuance, and energy-driven inflation offsetting goods-price relief.