Bitcoin LTH Data Turns Cautious: Supply Rises, But SOPR Stays Below 1.0

On-chain metrics show a mixed but cautious outlook for Bitcoin. Long-term holder (LTH) Realized Supply has expanded significantly — rising from 5.26M BTC in January to 8.32M BTC by April 16 (a +3.06M BTC increase over three months) — which suggests more coins are moving into illiquid, long-term storage and structurally compresses liquid supply. However, LTH SOPR (7‑day SMA) has slipped below 1.0 (0.979) for several days, indicating some long-term holders are selling at a loss. Analysts say the setup favors consolidation around the $75K area rather than broad distribution, but a sustained SOPR decline below the March lows (0.798) combined with a rollover in Realized Supply would be a clear bearish regime signal. Near-term market impact is therefore mixed: constructive supply dynamics offset by rising loss realization risk.