Bitcoin heads into Fed decision today at the exact price where its strongest holders may finally sell

Bitcoin’s rebound toward $80,000 is meeting a key macro test: the Federal Reserve’s April 29 policy statement and Powell press conference. Recent inflows — nine consecutive trading days of spot‑ETF purchases totaling about $2.12B since April 14 — and large ETP and corporate treasury accumulation (~92,900 BTC) have deepened institutional ownership (US spot BTC ETFs hold ~ $101B, ~6.57% of market cap). That institutional bid gives structural support, but a concentrated cluster of cost bases near $79–80k means many holders are approaching break‑even and could sell into any “sell the news” shock. With the rate decision itself fully priced in (CME shows near‑100% odds of a hold at 3.50–3.75%), market direction hinges on Powell’s language: hawkish tones could cool BTC, while dovish/neutral framing could allow a clean break above $80k. Major tech earnings (Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta) and subsequent macro prints add to near‑term volatility and the risk that the move requires fresh buyers, not just existing bid absorption.