Bitcoin, ether perpetual volumes on Kalshi are dominated by an unusual, repetitive trade, data shows

A CoinDesk investigation into trading activity on CFTC-regulated exchange Kalshi revealed that a small number of repetitive trade sizes account for more than half of the traded volume in its Bitcoin and Ether perpetual-futures markets. Analysis of public trade records between September 17 and September 20 showed that two recurring trade sizes of roughly $2,500 and $5,000 accounted for 54% of sampled Bitcoin perpetual volume, which totaled $8.5 million. Similarly, a single recurring trade size near $5,499 made up 57% ($7.7 million) of the $13.5 million analyzed in Ether perpetual volume. Historical samples dating back to June indicate that the dollar target of these trades remained nearly constant while contract counts adjusted automatically with underlying price movements. This pattern strongly points to automated algorithmic execution by a concentrated group of participants or market makers. The concentration of activity has prompted scrutiny over whether the exchange's reported perpetual volume accurately reflects broad liquidity or is driven by specific algorithmic programs and fee rebate models.