Bitcoin breaks four-year May decline pattern, hits $77,000 amid tensions

Bitcoin surged to $77,000 in early May 2026, breaking a four-year pattern of May declines and signaling renewed market optimism. The rally, up ~13% over the past 30 days, appears driven by institutional inflows and stronger correlation with equity indices (notably the Nasdaq) rather than gold, and has held up amid geopolitical tensions (including US-Iran hostilities). Prediction markets priced a 99.9% probability that BTC would remain above $68,000 on May 1, reflecting high market conviction. Key risk factors to watch are further geopolitical developments, institutional ETF flows, and Fed policy, all of which could amplify volatility or extend the rally.